Saturday, May 23, 2020

As the saying goes no good deed goes unrewarded....

As the saying goes no good deed goes unrewarded. Coleridge, in his poem The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, tells a story that no evil deed shall go unpunished. For every action there is an appropriate consequence equal to or greater than the original action. In the poem, The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, Coleridge explains this through the crime committed by the ancient Mariner and the consequences forced upon him for his actions as seemed fit by the spiritual world. The albatross had flown to the side of the Mariner’s ship and guided the ship through the fog. â€Å"At lengths did cross an albatross through the fog it came; As if it had been a Christian soul, we hailed it in God’s name.†(64-66). Coleridge tells us that the albatross was a†¦show more content†¦I believe that the events to fall upon the ancient mariner are consequences for blessings he destroyed. The second punishment was more of a physiologic punishment placed upon the Ancient Mariner instead of a physical one. Life and death soon appear and play a game of chance to determine the fortune of the Mariner and his crew. â€Å"the game is done, I’ve won.† (43). Winning the game apparently means survival as death takes the lives of the two hundred men aboard the ship. Life in death nonetheless blesses the Mariner with eternal life. This had become his punishment because the Mariner could no longer pray, sleep, and every day must live with the agonizing loss of his men aboard his now forsaken ship. â€Å"Alone, Alone, all, all alone, Alone on a wide wide sea! And never a saint took pity on My soul in agony.† (236-39). It is clear that the Ancient Mariner is being punished by the divine. In the same way the Mariner killed the Albatross the spiritual forces are in a way killing him. The Albatross is dead and now the Ancient Mariner is metaphorically dead also. This is apparent as the Mariner has been isolated in the middle of the ocean where everything all around him is the same and lifeless. Just as if he were to be dead and buried in the ground, there would be dirt to his left and to his right without a single soul to keep him company. The only way for the Mariner to ease his pain is

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Essay about Malcolm X vs Martin Luther King Jr - 1804 Words

In looking at how the actions of two of the Blount curriculum’s selected writers influenced historical change, progress, and thought I chose to focus on their respective views of race and race relations, in particular the Civil Rights Movement. I chose to write on the two diametrically opposed civil rights activists Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X. In the 1960’s the African American community became increasingly active in the struggle for civil rights. Although the concept race is an arbitrary societal construct based on the color of an individual’s skin and his or her geographic origin, it has had a profound impact not only on the founding and formation of our country but also the development modern American society. King and†¦show more content†¦Following the non-violent principles of Gandhi, King ignited hope into the eyes of thousands of African Americans for equal rights. Early in his career he realized that non-violent protest was the most efficient way of achieving his goal. He stated that: I had come to see early that the Christian doctrine of love operating through the Gandhian method of non-violence was one of the most potent weapons available to the Negro in his struggle for freedom. In seeking to continue and expand the non-violent struggle against discrimination, King, along with other Black ministers, set up the Southern Christian Leadership Conference. As a result of his consistent commitment to nonviolence, black college students began to launch a series of sit-ins at lunch counters and public places where segregation was existent (King 39). The turning point in King’s career came in 1963 in Birmingham, Alabama. The SCLC launched a major demonstration to protest anti-Black attitudes in the South. Confrontations ensued between unarmed Black demonstrators and Birmingham police and firemen who used clubs, attack dogs, and fire hoses as a show of unnecessary force to quell the crowd. The publication of this demonstration and the incidents that ensued had profound effects across the country. It sparked protests across the country and prompted President John F. Kennedy to push for passage of new civil rights legislation. The Birmingham incident resulted inShow MoreRelatedMartin Luther King Jr. vs. Malcolm X997 Words   |  4 PagesMartin Luther King Jr. vs. Malcolm X Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X both fought for the same goal, but had different ways of achieving this goal. They both fought against civil rights and were leaders in the civil rights movement. The way they were brought up is a good explanation for their differences; King was brought up in a wealthy family, while X was raised in the ghetto to a poor family. Both fought against unfair laws, Social Discrimination, and Racial segregation, but theyRead MoreMalcolm X vs. Martin Luther King Jr.1723 Words   |  7 Pagesthis momentous time in United States history. Speeches during this period served as a means to inspire and assemble a specific group of people, for Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X it was the black community that needed to rise up in hopes of achieving equal rights and voting rights for the blacks. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X were two of the most prominent leaders and orators at the heart of the Civil Rights Movement. Although both leaders possessed the same objectives, theirRead MoreMalcolm X Vs. Martin Luther King Jr. Essay1717 Words   |  7 Pagesthis momentous time in United States history. Speeches during this period served as a means to inspire and assemble a specific group of people, for Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X it was the black community that needed to rise up in hopes of achieving equal rights and voting rights for the blacks. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X were two of the most prominent leaders and orators at the heart of the Civil Rights Movement. Although both leaders possessed the same objectives, theirRead MoreMartin Luther King Jr. vs. Malcolm X1263 Words   |  6 Pages* Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X are two people on different ends of the scales, with totally different up-bringings. * King was brought up by a rich black family,with a good education, and a good chance at life. He was a black aristocrat, and a wealthy man. * Malcolm X was brought up in the ghetto, and had to learn to defend himself against racist white children. He was deptived of his father, who was found dead, murdered by a white mob. His mother became mentally ill so he wasRead MoreThe Civil Rights Movement712 Words   |  3 Pagesthough the actions taken by Malcolm X were of good intentions, they ended up causing a ripple between African Americans. On the other hand Martin Luther King Jr. identified that if people were going to respond to hatred with more hatred then there will be little chances for change and substance which was never understood by Malcolm. He was, of course, powerful and strong as an Africa American commanding huge followers and believers, but things did not end well as Malcolm X dies in the hand of his ownRead MoreMartin Luther King vs. Malcolm X Essay825 Words   |  4 PagesTwo of the greatest know civil rights speakers in the United States was Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm x. Both of these men had two very different views on what they thought would be the best way for blacks to get equality. Martin Luther King Jr. believed in his main philosophy which was non violent resistance. Martin used the teachings from Ghandi to teach African Americans how to use non violent resistance as a way to earn equality. He also believed that blacks should try to find commonRead MoreEssay Philosophies and Tactics of Dr. King and Malcolm X1492 Words   |  6 Pagesminorities. Among them, Martin Luther King and Malcolm X had an everlasting effect on the treatment of minorities in the United States. Although their philosophies and tactics differed greatly, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X helped shape the Civil Rights Movement and make the United States a better place for people regardless of their race. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X had different beliefs and goals for the Civil Rights Movement. While Martin Luther King Jr. took a more peacefulRead MoreMartin Luther King Vs Malcolm X1436 Words   |  6 PagesSelene Sandoval Professor Solheim History 108 CRN # 20244 16 October 2016 Martin Luther King VS Malcolm X Ronald Regan once said: â€Å"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.† In fact, American history has had a great deal of leaders that brought change by improving the lives of others. These leaders introduced new ideas, models, and theories toRead MoreCivil War Movement : Martin Luther King Jr Malcolm X1212 Words   |  5 Pages Research paper History 11.21 December 23, 2014 Civil War Movement: Martin Luther King Jr/ Malcolm X Many years after blacks had received citizenship and the right to vote there was still much bias against them. Because of their skin color African Americans hadn’t been treated fairly and did not have the same rights as whites. In theRead MoreA Research on The Civil Rights Movement1448 Words   |  6 PagesMovement (Martin Luther King Jr. Vs Malcolm X) and will be focusing on two important icons that have an important part of African American History. I am going to further discuss in this research paper, â€Å"What were the views of Martin Luther King. Jr and Malcolm X during the Civil Rights movement? What were their goals and methods to achieve equality and peace?† Both leaders wanted to unite the black race with the white race and achieve equal rights. Martin Luther King. Jr and Malcolm X were both very

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay Free Essays

string(64) " by measure description of the codification is explained below\." In the old chapter 2, we discussed approximately aggregative claims and how it can be modelled and simulated utilizing R scheduling. In this chapter we shall discourse on one of the of import factors which has direct impact on arise of a claim, the human mortality. Life insurance companies use this factor to pattern hazard originating out of claims. We will write a custom essay sample on Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay or any similar topic only for you Order Now We shall analyze and look into the petroleum informations presented in human mortality database for specific states like Scotland and Sweden and utilize statistical techniques. Mortality smooth bundle is used in smoothing the informations based on Bayesian information standard BIC, a technique used to find smoothing parameter ; we shall besides plot the information. Finally we shall reason by executing comparing of mortality of two states based on clip. 3.1 Introduction Mortality informations in simple footings is entering of deceases of species defined in a specific set. This aggregation of informations could change based on different variables or sets such as sex, age, old ages, geographical location and existences. In this subdivision we shall utilize human informations grouped based on population of states, sex, ages and old ages. Human mortality in urban states has improved significantly over the past few centuries. This has attributed mostly due to improved criterion of life and national wellness services to the populace, but in latter decennaries there has been enormous betterment in wellness attention in recent steps which has made strong demographic and actuarial deductions. Here we use human mortality informations and analyse mortality tendency compute life tabular arraies and monetary value different rente merchandises. 3.2 Beginnings of Datas Human mortality database ( HMD ) is used to pull out informations related to deceases and exposure. These informations are collected from national statistical offices. In this thesis we shall look into two states Sweden and Scotland informations for specific ages and old ages. The information for specific states Sweden and Scotland are downloaded. The deceases and exposure informations is downloaded from HMD under Sverige Scotland They are downloaded and saved as â€Å" .txt † informations files in the several difficult disc under â€Å" /Data/Conutryname_deaths.txt † and â€Å" /Data/Conutryname_exposures.txt † severally. In general the information handiness and formats vary over states and clip. The female and male decease and exposure informations are shared from natural informations. The â€Å" entire † column in the information beginning is calculated utilizing leaden norm based on the comparative size of the two groups male and female at a given clip. 3.3 Gompertz jurisprudence graduation A well-known statistician, Benjamin Gompertz observed that over a long period of human life clip, the force of mortality additions geometrically with age. This was modelled for individual twelvemonth of life. The Gompertz theoretical account is additive on the log graduated table. The Gompertz jurisprudence states that â€Å" the mortality rate additions in a geometric patterned advance † . Therefore when decease rates are A gt ; 0 B gt ; 1 And the line drive theoretical account is fitted by taking log both sides. = a + bx Where a = and B = The corresponding quadratic theoretical account is given as follows 3.3.1 Generalized Linear theoretical accounts are P-Splines in smoothing informations Generalized Linear Models ( GLM ) are an extension of the additive theoretical accounts that allows theoretical accounts to be fit to data that follow chance distributions like Poisson, Binomial, and etc. If is the figure of deceases at age ten and is cardinal exposed to put on the line so By maximal likelihood estimation we have and by GLM, follows Poisson distribution denoted by with a + bx We shall utilize P-splines techniques in smoothing the information. As mentioned above the GLM with figure of deceases follows Poisson distribution, we fit a quadratic arrested development utilizing exposure as the beginning parametric quantity. The splines are piecewise multinomials normally cubic and they are joined utilizing the belongings of 2nd derived functions being equal at those points, these articulations are defined as knots to suit informations. It uses B-splines arrested development matrix. A punishment map of order linear or quadratic or three-dimensional is used to punish the irregular behavior of informations by puting a punishment difference. This map is so used in the log likeliness along with smoothing parametric quantity.The equations are maximised to obtain smoothing informations. Larger the value of implies smoother is the map but more aberrance. Therefore, optimum value of is chosen to equilibrate aberrance and theoretical account complexness. is evaluated utilizing assorted techniques such as BIC – Bayesian information standard and AIC – Akaike ‘s information standard techniques. Mortalitysmooth bundle in R implements the techniques mentioned above in smoothing informations, There are different options or picks to smoothen utilizing p-splines, The figure of knots ndx, the grade of p-spine whether additive, quadratic or three-dimensional bdeg and the smoothning parametric quantity lamda. The mortality smooth methods fits a P-spline theoretical account with equally-spaced B-splines along ten There are four possible methods in this bundle to smooth informations, the default value being set is BIC. AIC minimisation is besides available but BIC provides better result for big values. In this thesis, we shall smoothen the informations utilizing default option BIC and utilizing lamda value. 3.4 MortalitySmooth Package in R plan execution In this subdivision we describe the generic execution of utilizing R programming to read deceases and exposure informations from human mortality database and usage MortalitySmooth bundle to smoothen the informations based on p-splines. The undermentioned codification presented below tonss the gt ; require ( â€Å" MortalitySmooth † ) gt ; beginning ( â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † ) gt ; Age lt ; -30:80 ; Year lt ; – 1959:1999 gt ; state lt ; – † Scotland † ; Sex lt ; – â€Å" Males † gt ; decease =LoadHMDData ( state, Age, Year, † Deaths † , Sex ) gt ; exposure =LoadHMDData ( state, Age, Year, † Exposures † , Sex ) gt ; FilParam.Val lt ; -40 gt ; Hmd.SmoothData =SmoothenHMDDataset ( Age, Year, decease, exposure ) gt ; XAxis lt ; – Year gt ; YAxis lt ; -log ( fitted ( Hmd.SmoothData $ Smoothfit.BIC ) [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] /exposure [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] ) gt ; plotHMDDataset ( XAxis, log ( decease [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] /exposure [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] ) , MainDesc, Xlab, Ylab, legend.loc ) gt ; DrawlineHMDDataset ( XAxis, YAxis ) The MortalitySmooth bundle is loaded and the generic execution of methods to put to death graduation smoothening is available in Programs/Graduation_Methods.r. The measure by measure description of the codification is explained below. You read "Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay" in category "Essay examples" Step:1 Load Human Mortality information Method Name LoadHMDData Description Return an object of Matrix type which is a mxn dimension with m stand foring figure of Ages and n stand foring figure of old ages. This object is specifically formatted to be used in Mortality2Dsmooth map. Execution LoadHMDData ( Country, Age, Year, Type, Sex ) Arguments Country Name of the state for which information to be loaded. If state is â€Å" Denmark † , † Sweden † , † Switzerland † or â€Å" Japan † the SelectHMDData map of MortalitySmooth bundle is called internally. Age Vector for the figure of rows defined in the matrix object. There must be atleast one value. Year Vector for the figure of columns defined in the matrix object. There must be atleast one value. Type A value which specifies the type of informations to be loaded from Human mortality database. It can take values as â€Å" Deaths † or â€Å" Exposures † Sexual activity An optional filter value based on which information is loaded into the matrix object. It can take values â€Å" Males † , â€Å" Females † and â€Å" Entire † . Default value being â€Å" Entire † Detailss The method LoadHMDData in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † reads the informations availale in the directory Data to lade deceases or exposure for the given parametric quantities. The informations can be filtered based on Country, Age, Year, Type based on Deaths or Exposures and in conclusion by Sexual activity. Figure: 3.1 Format of matrix objects Death and Exposure. The Figure 3.1 shows the format used in objects Death and Exposure to hive away informations. A matrix object stand foring Age in rows and Old ages in column. The MortalitySmooth bundle contains certain characteristics for specific states listed in the bundle. They are Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan. These informations for these states can be straight accessed by a predefined map SelectHMDData. LoadHMDData map checks the value of the variable state and if Country is equal to any of the 4 states mentioned in the mortalitysmooth bundle so SelectHMDData method is internally called or else customized generic map is called to return the objects. The return objects format in both maps remains precisely the same. Measure 2: Smoothen HMD Dataset Method Name SmoothenHMDDataset Description Return a list of smoothened object based BIC and Lamda of matrix object type which is a mxn dimension with m stand foring figure of Ages and n stand foring figure of old ages. This object is specifically formatted to be used in Mortality2Dsmooth map. Tax returns a list of objects of type Mort2Dsmooth which is a planar P-splines smooth of the input informations and order fixed to be default. These objects are customized for mortality informations merely. Smoothfit.BIC and Smoothfit.fitLAM objects are returned along with fitBIC.Data fitted values. SmoothenHMDDataset ( Xaxis, YAxis, ZAxis, Offset.Param ) Arguments Xaxis Vector for the abscissa of informations used in the map Mortality2Dsmooth in MortalitySmooth bundle in R. Here Age vector is value of XAxis. Yaxis Vector for the ordinate of informations used in the map Mortality2Dsmooth in MortalitySmooth bundle in R. Here Year vector is value of YAxis. .ZAxis Matrix Count response used in the map Mortality2Dsmooth in MortalitySmooth bundle in R. Here Death is the matrix object value for ZAxis and dimensions of ZAxis must match to the length of XAxis and YAxis. Offset.Param A Matrix with anterior known values to be included in the additive forecaster during suiting the 2d informations. Here exposure is the matrix object value and is the additive forecaster. Detailss. The method SmoothenHMDDataset in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † smoothens the informations based on the decease and exposure objects loaded as defined above in measure 1. The Age, twelvemonth and decease are loaded as x-axis, y-axis and z-axis severally with exposure as the beginning parametric quantity. These parametric quantities are internally fitted in Mortality2Dsmooth map available in MortalitySmooth bundle in smoothing the information. Step3: secret plan the smoothened informations based on user input Method Name PlotHMDDataset Description Plot the smoothed object with the several axis, fable, axis graduated table inside informations are machine rifles customized based on user inputs. Execution PlotHMDDataset ( Xaxis, YAxis, MainDesc, Xlab, Ylab, legend.loc, legend.Val, Plot.Type, Ylim ) Arguments Xaxis Vector for plotting X axis value. Here the value would be Age or Year based on user petition. Yaxis Vector for plotting X axis value. Here the value would be Smoothened log mortality valleies filtered for a peculiar Age or Year. MainDesc Main inside informations depicting about the secret plan. Xlab X axis label. Ylab Y axis label. legend.loc A customized location of fable. It can take values â€Å" topright † , † topleft † legend.Val A customized fable description inside informations – it can take vector values of type twine. Val, Plot.Type An optional value to alter secret plan type. Here default value is equal to default value set in the secret plan. If value =1, so figure with line is plotted Ylim An optional value to put the tallness of the Y axis, by default takes max value of vector Y values. Detailss The generic method PlotHMDDataset in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † plots the smoothed fitted mortality values with an option to custom-make based on user inputs. The generic method DrawlineHMDDataset in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † plots the line. Normally called after PlotHMDDataset method. 3.5 Graphic representation of smoothened mortality informations. In this subdivision we shall look into graphical representation of mortality informations for selected states Scotland and Sweden. The generic plan discussed in old subdivision 3.4 is used to implement the secret plan based on customized user inputs. Log mortality of smoothed informations v.s existent tantrum for Sweden. Figure 3.3 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The points represent existent informations and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on twelvemonth 1995 and age from 30 to 90. The points represent existent informations red and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Log mortality of smoothed informations v.s existent tantrum for Scotland Figure 3.4 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The points represent existent informations and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on twelvemonth 1995 and age from 30 to 90. The points represent existent informations red and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Log mortality of Females Vs Males for Sweden The Figure 3.5 given below represents the mortality rate for males and females in Sweden for age wise and twelvemonth wise. 3.5 Left panel reveals that the mortality of male is more than the female over the old ages and has been a sudden addition of male mortality from mid 1960 ‘s boulder clay late 1970 ‘s for male – The life anticipation for Sweden male in 1960 is 71.24 V 74.92 for adult females and it had been increasing for adult females to 77.06 and merely 72.2 for male in the following decennary which explains the tendency. Figure 3.5 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on twelvemonth 2000 and age from 25 to 90. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. The Figure 3.5 represents the mortality rate for males and females in Sweden for age wise and twelvemonth wise. 3.5 Left panel reveals that the mortality of male is more than the female over the old ages and has been a sudden addition of male mortality from mid 1960 ‘s boulder clay late 1970 ‘s for male – The life anticipation for Sweden male in 1960 is 71.24 V 74.92 for adult females and it had been increasing for adult females to 77.06 and merely 72.2 for male in the following decennary which explains the tendency. The 3.5 Right panel shows the male mortality is more than the female mortality for the twelvemonth 1995, The sex ratio for male to female is 1.06 at birth and has been systematically diminishing to 1.03 during 15-64 and.79 over 65 and above clearly explicating the tendency for Sweden mortality rate addition in males is more than in females. Log mortality of Females Vs Males for Scotland Figure 3.6 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on twelvemonth 2000 and age from 25 to 90. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. The figure 3.6 Left panel describes consistent dip in mortality rates but there has been a steady addition in mortality rates of male over female for a long period get downing mid 1950 ‘s and has been steadily increasing for people of age 40 years.The 3.6 Right panel shows the male mortality is more than the female mortality for the twelvemonth 1995, The sex ratio for male to female is 1.04 at birth and has been systematically diminishing to.94 during 15-64 and.88 over 65 and above clearly explicating the tendency for Scotland mortality rate addition in males is more than in females. hypertext transfer protocol: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Scotland . Log mortality of Scotland Vs Sweden Figure 3.7 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for states Sweden and Scotland based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for Sweden and Scotland severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC Sweden and Scotland severally. Right panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for states Sweden and Scotland based on twelvemonth 2000 and age from 25 to 90. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for Sweden and Scotland severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC Sweden and Scotland severally. The figure 3.7 Left Panel shows that the mortality rates for Scotland are more than Sweden and there has been consistent lessening in mortality rates for Sweden get downing mid 1970 ‘s where as Scotland mortality rates though decreased for a period started to demo upward tendency, this could be attributed due to alter in life conditions. How to cite Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay, Essay examples

Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay Free Essays

string(64) " by measure description of the codification is explained below\." In the old chapter 2, we discussed approximately aggregative claims and how it can be modelled and simulated utilizing R scheduling. In this chapter we shall discourse on one of the of import factors which has direct impact on arise of a claim, the human mortality. Life insurance companies use this factor to pattern hazard originating out of claims. We will write a custom essay sample on Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay or any similar topic only for you Order Now We shall analyze and look into the petroleum informations presented in human mortality database for specific states like Scotland and Sweden and utilize statistical techniques. Mortality smooth bundle is used in smoothing the informations based on Bayesian information standard BIC, a technique used to find smoothing parameter ; we shall besides plot the information. Finally we shall reason by executing comparing of mortality of two states based on clip. 3.1 Introduction Mortality informations in simple footings is entering of deceases of species defined in a specific set. This aggregation of informations could change based on different variables or sets such as sex, age, old ages, geographical location and existences. In this subdivision we shall utilize human informations grouped based on population of states, sex, ages and old ages. Human mortality in urban states has improved significantly over the past few centuries. This has attributed mostly due to improved criterion of life and national wellness services to the populace, but in latter decennaries there has been enormous betterment in wellness attention in recent steps which has made strong demographic and actuarial deductions. Here we use human mortality informations and analyse mortality tendency compute life tabular arraies and monetary value different rente merchandises. 3.2 Beginnings of Datas Human mortality database ( HMD ) is used to pull out informations related to deceases and exposure. These informations are collected from national statistical offices. In this thesis we shall look into two states Sweden and Scotland informations for specific ages and old ages. The information for specific states Sweden and Scotland are downloaded. The deceases and exposure informations is downloaded from HMD under Sverige Scotland They are downloaded and saved as â€Å" .txt † informations files in the several difficult disc under â€Å" /Data/Conutryname_deaths.txt † and â€Å" /Data/Conutryname_exposures.txt † severally. In general the information handiness and formats vary over states and clip. The female and male decease and exposure informations are shared from natural informations. The â€Å" entire † column in the information beginning is calculated utilizing leaden norm based on the comparative size of the two groups male and female at a given clip. 3.3 Gompertz jurisprudence graduation A well-known statistician, Benjamin Gompertz observed that over a long period of human life clip, the force of mortality additions geometrically with age. This was modelled for individual twelvemonth of life. The Gompertz theoretical account is additive on the log graduated table. The Gompertz jurisprudence states that â€Å" the mortality rate additions in a geometric patterned advance † . Therefore when decease rates are A gt ; 0 B gt ; 1 And the line drive theoretical account is fitted by taking log both sides. = a + bx Where a = and B = The corresponding quadratic theoretical account is given as follows 3.3.1 Generalized Linear theoretical accounts are P-Splines in smoothing informations Generalized Linear Models ( GLM ) are an extension of the additive theoretical accounts that allows theoretical accounts to be fit to data that follow chance distributions like Poisson, Binomial, and etc. If is the figure of deceases at age ten and is cardinal exposed to put on the line so By maximal likelihood estimation we have and by GLM, follows Poisson distribution denoted by with a + bx We shall utilize P-splines techniques in smoothing the information. As mentioned above the GLM with figure of deceases follows Poisson distribution, we fit a quadratic arrested development utilizing exposure as the beginning parametric quantity. The splines are piecewise multinomials normally cubic and they are joined utilizing the belongings of 2nd derived functions being equal at those points, these articulations are defined as knots to suit informations. It uses B-splines arrested development matrix. A punishment map of order linear or quadratic or three-dimensional is used to punish the irregular behavior of informations by puting a punishment difference. This map is so used in the log likeliness along with smoothing parametric quantity.The equations are maximised to obtain smoothing informations. Larger the value of implies smoother is the map but more aberrance. Therefore, optimum value of is chosen to equilibrate aberrance and theoretical account complexness. is evaluated utilizing assorted techniques such as BIC – Bayesian information standard and AIC – Akaike ‘s information standard techniques. Mortalitysmooth bundle in R implements the techniques mentioned above in smoothing informations, There are different options or picks to smoothen utilizing p-splines, The figure of knots ndx, the grade of p-spine whether additive, quadratic or three-dimensional bdeg and the smoothning parametric quantity lamda. The mortality smooth methods fits a P-spline theoretical account with equally-spaced B-splines along ten There are four possible methods in this bundle to smooth informations, the default value being set is BIC. AIC minimisation is besides available but BIC provides better result for big values. In this thesis, we shall smoothen the informations utilizing default option BIC and utilizing lamda value. 3.4 MortalitySmooth Package in R plan execution In this subdivision we describe the generic execution of utilizing R programming to read deceases and exposure informations from human mortality database and usage MortalitySmooth bundle to smoothen the informations based on p-splines. The undermentioned codification presented below tonss the gt ; require ( â€Å" MortalitySmooth † ) gt ; beginning ( â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † ) gt ; Age lt ; -30:80 ; Year lt ; – 1959:1999 gt ; state lt ; – † Scotland † ; Sex lt ; – â€Å" Males † gt ; decease =LoadHMDData ( state, Age, Year, † Deaths † , Sex ) gt ; exposure =LoadHMDData ( state, Age, Year, † Exposures † , Sex ) gt ; FilParam.Val lt ; -40 gt ; Hmd.SmoothData =SmoothenHMDDataset ( Age, Year, decease, exposure ) gt ; XAxis lt ; – Year gt ; YAxis lt ; -log ( fitted ( Hmd.SmoothData $ Smoothfit.BIC ) [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] /exposure [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] ) gt ; plotHMDDataset ( XAxis, log ( decease [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] /exposure [ Age==FilParam.Val, ] ) , MainDesc, Xlab, Ylab, legend.loc ) gt ; DrawlineHMDDataset ( XAxis, YAxis ) The MortalitySmooth bundle is loaded and the generic execution of methods to put to death graduation smoothening is available in Programs/Graduation_Methods.r. The measure by measure description of the codification is explained below. You read "Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay" in category "Essay examples" Step:1 Load Human Mortality information Method Name LoadHMDData Description Return an object of Matrix type which is a mxn dimension with m stand foring figure of Ages and n stand foring figure of old ages. This object is specifically formatted to be used in Mortality2Dsmooth map. Execution LoadHMDData ( Country, Age, Year, Type, Sex ) Arguments Country Name of the state for which information to be loaded. If state is â€Å" Denmark † , † Sweden † , † Switzerland † or â€Å" Japan † the SelectHMDData map of MortalitySmooth bundle is called internally. Age Vector for the figure of rows defined in the matrix object. There must be atleast one value. Year Vector for the figure of columns defined in the matrix object. There must be atleast one value. Type A value which specifies the type of informations to be loaded from Human mortality database. It can take values as â€Å" Deaths † or â€Å" Exposures † Sexual activity An optional filter value based on which information is loaded into the matrix object. It can take values â€Å" Males † , â€Å" Females † and â€Å" Entire † . Default value being â€Å" Entire † Detailss The method LoadHMDData in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † reads the informations availale in the directory Data to lade deceases or exposure for the given parametric quantities. The informations can be filtered based on Country, Age, Year, Type based on Deaths or Exposures and in conclusion by Sexual activity. Figure: 3.1 Format of matrix objects Death and Exposure. The Figure 3.1 shows the format used in objects Death and Exposure to hive away informations. A matrix object stand foring Age in rows and Old ages in column. The MortalitySmooth bundle contains certain characteristics for specific states listed in the bundle. They are Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan. These informations for these states can be straight accessed by a predefined map SelectHMDData. LoadHMDData map checks the value of the variable state and if Country is equal to any of the 4 states mentioned in the mortalitysmooth bundle so SelectHMDData method is internally called or else customized generic map is called to return the objects. The return objects format in both maps remains precisely the same. Measure 2: Smoothen HMD Dataset Method Name SmoothenHMDDataset Description Return a list of smoothened object based BIC and Lamda of matrix object type which is a mxn dimension with m stand foring figure of Ages and n stand foring figure of old ages. This object is specifically formatted to be used in Mortality2Dsmooth map. Tax returns a list of objects of type Mort2Dsmooth which is a planar P-splines smooth of the input informations and order fixed to be default. These objects are customized for mortality informations merely. Smoothfit.BIC and Smoothfit.fitLAM objects are returned along with fitBIC.Data fitted values. SmoothenHMDDataset ( Xaxis, YAxis, ZAxis, Offset.Param ) Arguments Xaxis Vector for the abscissa of informations used in the map Mortality2Dsmooth in MortalitySmooth bundle in R. Here Age vector is value of XAxis. Yaxis Vector for the ordinate of informations used in the map Mortality2Dsmooth in MortalitySmooth bundle in R. Here Year vector is value of YAxis. .ZAxis Matrix Count response used in the map Mortality2Dsmooth in MortalitySmooth bundle in R. Here Death is the matrix object value for ZAxis and dimensions of ZAxis must match to the length of XAxis and YAxis. Offset.Param A Matrix with anterior known values to be included in the additive forecaster during suiting the 2d informations. Here exposure is the matrix object value and is the additive forecaster. Detailss. The method SmoothenHMDDataset in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † smoothens the informations based on the decease and exposure objects loaded as defined above in measure 1. The Age, twelvemonth and decease are loaded as x-axis, y-axis and z-axis severally with exposure as the beginning parametric quantity. These parametric quantities are internally fitted in Mortality2Dsmooth map available in MortalitySmooth bundle in smoothing the information. Step3: secret plan the smoothened informations based on user input Method Name PlotHMDDataset Description Plot the smoothed object with the several axis, fable, axis graduated table inside informations are machine rifles customized based on user inputs. Execution PlotHMDDataset ( Xaxis, YAxis, MainDesc, Xlab, Ylab, legend.loc, legend.Val, Plot.Type, Ylim ) Arguments Xaxis Vector for plotting X axis value. Here the value would be Age or Year based on user petition. Yaxis Vector for plotting X axis value. Here the value would be Smoothened log mortality valleies filtered for a peculiar Age or Year. MainDesc Main inside informations depicting about the secret plan. Xlab X axis label. Ylab Y axis label. legend.loc A customized location of fable. It can take values â€Å" topright † , † topleft † legend.Val A customized fable description inside informations – it can take vector values of type twine. Val, Plot.Type An optional value to alter secret plan type. Here default value is equal to default value set in the secret plan. If value =1, so figure with line is plotted Ylim An optional value to put the tallness of the Y axis, by default takes max value of vector Y values. Detailss The generic method PlotHMDDataset in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † plots the smoothed fitted mortality values with an option to custom-make based on user inputs. The generic method DrawlineHMDDataset in â€Å" Programs/Graduation_Methods.r † plots the line. Normally called after PlotHMDDataset method. 3.5 Graphic representation of smoothened mortality informations. In this subdivision we shall look into graphical representation of mortality informations for selected states Scotland and Sweden. The generic plan discussed in old subdivision 3.4 is used to implement the secret plan based on customized user inputs. Log mortality of smoothed informations v.s existent tantrum for Sweden. Figure 3.3 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The points represent existent informations and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on twelvemonth 1995 and age from 30 to 90. The points represent existent informations red and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Log mortality of smoothed informations v.s existent tantrum for Scotland Figure 3.4 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The points represent existent informations and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on twelvemonth 1995 and age from 30 to 90. The points represent existent informations red and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC and Lamda =10000 severally. Log mortality of Females Vs Males for Sweden The Figure 3.5 given below represents the mortality rate for males and females in Sweden for age wise and twelvemonth wise. 3.5 Left panel reveals that the mortality of male is more than the female over the old ages and has been a sudden addition of male mortality from mid 1960 ‘s boulder clay late 1970 ‘s for male – The life anticipation for Sweden male in 1960 is 71.24 V 74.92 for adult females and it had been increasing for adult females to 77.06 and merely 72.2 for male in the following decennary which explains the tendency. Figure 3.5 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Sweden based on twelvemonth 2000 and age from 25 to 90. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. The Figure 3.5 represents the mortality rate for males and females in Sweden for age wise and twelvemonth wise. 3.5 Left panel reveals that the mortality of male is more than the female over the old ages and has been a sudden addition of male mortality from mid 1960 ‘s boulder clay late 1970 ‘s for male – The life anticipation for Sweden male in 1960 is 71.24 V 74.92 for adult females and it had been increasing for adult females to 77.06 and merely 72.2 for male in the following decennary which explains the tendency. The 3.5 Right panel shows the male mortality is more than the female mortality for the twelvemonth 1995, The sex ratio for male to female is 1.06 at birth and has been systematically diminishing to 1.03 during 15-64 and.79 over 65 and above clearly explicating the tendency for Sweden mortality rate addition in males is more than in females. Log mortality of Females Vs Males for Scotland Figure 3.6 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. Right panel: – Plot of Age v.s log ( Mortality ) for Scotland based on twelvemonth 2000 and age from 25 to 90. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for males and females severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC males and females severally. The figure 3.6 Left panel describes consistent dip in mortality rates but there has been a steady addition in mortality rates of male over female for a long period get downing mid 1950 ‘s and has been steadily increasing for people of age 40 years.The 3.6 Right panel shows the male mortality is more than the female mortality for the twelvemonth 1995, The sex ratio for male to female is 1.04 at birth and has been systematically diminishing to.94 during 15-64 and.88 over 65 and above clearly explicating the tendency for Scotland mortality rate addition in males is more than in females. hypertext transfer protocol: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Scotland . Log mortality of Scotland Vs Sweden Figure 3.7 Left panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for states Sweden and Scotland based on age 40 and twelvemonth from 1945 to 2005. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for Sweden and Scotland severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC Sweden and Scotland severally. Right panel: – Plot of Year v.s log ( Mortality ) for states Sweden and Scotland based on twelvemonth 2000 and age from 25 to 90. The ruddy and bluish points represent existent informations for Sweden and Scotland severally and ruddy and bluish curves represent smoothed fitted curves for BIC Sweden and Scotland severally. The figure 3.7 Left Panel shows that the mortality rates for Scotland are more than Sweden and there has been consistent lessening in mortality rates for Sweden get downing mid 1970 ‘s where as Scotland mortality rates though decreased for a period started to demo upward tendency, this could be attributed due to alter in life conditions. How to cite Survival Models And Mortality Data Health And Social Care Essay, Essay examples

Friday, May 1, 2020

Apollo 13 (as

Apollo 13 (as-508): Houston, We Have A Problem. Essay Apollo 13 (AS-508): Houston, we have a problem. The Apollo 13 mission was launched at 2:13 p.m. EST, April 11, 1970 fromlaunch complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center. The space vehicle crew consisted ofJames A. Lovell, Jr. commander, John L. Swigert, Jr., command module pilot andFred W. Haise, Jr. lunar module pilot. The Apollo 13 Mission was planned as a lunar landing mission but wasaborted en route to the moon after about 56 hours of flight due to loss ofservice module cryogenic oxygen and consequent loss of capability to generateelectrical power, to provide oxygen and to produce water. Spacecraft systems performance was nominal until the fans in cryogenicoxygen tank 2 were turned on at 55:53:18 ground elapsed time (GET). About 2seconds after energizing the fan circuit, a short was indicated in the currentfrom fuel cell 3, which was supplying power to cryogenic oxygen tank 2 fans. Within several additional seconds, two other shorted conditions occurred. Electrical shorts in the fan circuit ignited the wire insulation, causingtemperature and pressure to increase within cryogenic oxygen tank 2. Whenpressure reached the cryogenic oxygen tank 2 relief valve full-flow conditionsof 1008 psi, the pressure began decreasing for about 9 seconds, at which timethe relief valve probably reseated, causing the pressure to rise againmomentarily. About a quarter of a second later, a vibration disturbance wasnoted on the command module accelerometers. The next series of events occurred within a fraction of a second betweenthe accelerometer disturbances and the data loss. A tank line burst, because ofheat, in the vacuum jacket pressurizing the annulus and, in turn, causing theblow-out plug on the vacuum jacket to rupture. Some mechanism in bay 4 combinedwith the oxygen buildup in that bay to cause a rapid pressure rise whichresulted in separation of the outer panel. The panel struck one of the dishes ofthe high-gain antenna. The panel separation shock closed the fuel cell 1 and 3oxygen reactant shut-off valves and several propellant and helium isolationvalves in the reaction control system. Data were lost for about 1.8 seconds asthe high-gain antenna switched from narrow beam to wide beam, because of theantenna being hit and damaged. As a result of these occurrences, the CM was powered down and the LM wasconfigured to supply the necessary power and other consumables. The CSM was powered down at approximately 58:40 GET. The surge tank andrepressurization package were isolated with approximately 860 psi residualpressure (approx. 6.5 lbs of oxygen total). The primary water glycol system wasleft with radiators bypassed. All LM systems performed satisfactorily in providing the necessary powerand environmental control to the spacecraft. The requirement for lithiumhydroxide to remove carbon dioxide from the spacecraft atmosphere was met by acombination of the CM and LM cartridges since the LM cartridges alone would notsatisfy the total requirement. The crew, with direction from Mission Control,built an adapter for the CM cartridges to accept LM hoses. The service module was jettisoned at approximately 138 hours GET, andthe crew observed and photographed the bay-4 area where the cryogenic tankanomaly had occurred. At this time, the crew remarked that the outer skincovering for bay-4 had been severely damaged, with a large portion missing. The LM was jettisoned about 1 hour before entry, which was performednominally using primary guidance and navigation system.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Baroque Opera Development and Cultural Values free essay sample

â€Å"Derived from the Portuguese barroco, or â€Å"oddly shaped pearl,† the term â€Å"baroque† has been widely used since the nineteenth century to describe the period in Western European art music from about 1600 to 1750† http://www. baroque. org. Following the Renaissance, the baroque period was known for its expressivity of boldness, extravagance, overall balance, and use of heavy use of ornamentation. These features can be seen in everything from the clothing styles, to the architecture, and in particular the arts. The baroque period is generally divided into 2 timeframes, the early baroque period (1600-1680) and the late baroque period (1680-1750). In terms of music, the early baroque period notes a new interest in the use of monody. Monody is the use of one voice or instrument, typically accompanied by basso continuo. The Renaissance period is known for its use of polyphony. In the late baroque period, concerto grosso became the more popular style written. We will write a custom essay sample on Baroque Opera Development and Cultural Values or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Concerto grosso shows two groups of instruments or voices in contrast to each other singing or playing lines back and forth, thus introducing the first melody and harmony performances. The key instrumental form of the late Baroque period was the concerto grosso, which reflected the contrast between two groups of instruments. The two groups either alternated with one another or play together. A majority of the baroque music composed was for the church, royalty, and the social elite. This may have clouded the composer’s true vision for their music, as their works were dictated by the payer’s taste. â€Å"The greatest legacy by the late Baroque period was the creation of operas and oratorios, considered greatest and most magnificent is Handels Messiah, and J. S. Bachs St Matthew Passion† http://www. usicedmagic. com. An opera is a story that is performed by singing. The plot is expressed by speech-like songs called recitatives and arias which are more indicative of the mood or feeling at that particular moment in the performance. â€Å"The first surviving opera was Jacopo Peri’s Dafne, based on a libretto by Ottavio Rinuccini and performe d in Florence in 1598; the earliest opera still performed today is Claudio Monteverdi’s Orfeo (1607). The subjects of the first operas are all taken from Greek myth, reflecting the genre’s close alliances with attempts to recreate the music and drama of ancient cultures, nd were performed solely in aristocratic circles for invited guests† http://www. baroque. org. In the 1630s the first opera houses were opened in Venice, Italy. The audience dictated what the performers would sing and how it was performed. The crowds typically liked the arias, so that is what was primarily performed during that time. This led to a decline in dances and choruses in Italian opera. By the early 1700s, two styles became prevalent, operas with a serious tone (da capo aria) and operas with a comedic tone (opera buffa). As the baroque period and its operas progressed, the styles became more dramatic. This led to the changes and popularity of the oratorios and the cantatas. Oratorios began as small religious-based operas and ended up being huge productions mixed with non-religious texts. The cantatas began as very small secular operas performed as duets, trios, and quartets. They were performed by amateurs and professionals. As time went on, they became incorporating orchestral accompaniments and primarily performed by professionals. â€Å"Essays in classical oratory by Quintillian and Cicero provided a model for Baroque actors, as did posture and gestures taken from both classical and contemporary paintings and sculpture. Rhetorical gesture was designed to accompany individual words of text, rather than to display the pervading emotions† http://www. operaatelier. com. Baroque operas were difficult to perform due to the density of the text to be performed. To effectively convey the emotion to the audience the performers had to vividly perform to evoke emotion from the audience while maintaining the structure of the baroque style. This proves a challenge even for today’s performers. The singing style was heavily ornamented and exaggerated by the use of vibratos, dynamic changes of volume, and many other techniques. Not only was the introduction of the opera a demarcation of the baroque, but the instrumental solos and orchestral pieces as well. Johann Sebastian Bach and George Frideric Handel were great composers of instrumental masterpieces. Handle’s music for the royal fireworks is a great example of the baroque style orchestra. The instruments are played with staccato (short â€Å"poppy† style with a hint of separation between notes), lots of variation of volume, trills, etc. These all are methods used by the musicians to ornament the song. There were also layers of different instruments at varying times, and a contraposto style expressed between the different sections of the orchestra. It’s almost as the different sections are talking back and forth to one another. Another great example of a baroque masterpiece is Bach’s Toccata Fugue in D minor. This was written for the pipe organ by Bach, but there is no surviving copy in Bach’s own handwriting. Several masters have rewritten the work and that is how it survives today. The piece begins with a few short notes followed by a single long note. The sounds are soon followed by the accompaniment of long deep bass tones. Throughout the song there are arguments and accompaniments between the harmony and melody of the deep rumbling bass and the high shrills produced by the pipe organ. At times the song is soft and beautiful, other times the song is strong and loud, displaying aggressive dissonance. This truly is a magnificent piece displaying all of the classic signs of the late baroque evoking emotion from all listeners. The song is still very popular and used in many ads and movies today. As listeners’ tastes grew and changed, so did the style of music. Audiences began to prefer a new melodic expression of clean musical architecture which is quite different from the heavily ornamented and opulent baroque style. This new preference ushered in the new classical style and the age of Hyden and Mozart. â€Å"Although the baroque period ended over 250 years ago, vestiges of the era can be heard everywhere. Some of the most influential and beloved compositions are regularly performed in concert halls, and a wealth of recordings make the baroque available on demand. Many of the musical genres still in use today, like the oratorio, concerto and opera, originated in the period. Twentieth century composers such as Ralph Vaughn Williams, Igor Stravinsky and Benjamin Britten paid homage to the baroque in their works. Its influence can even be heard outside the realm of art music: the free movement between solo and group in jazz is sometimes compared to baroque music, and snippets of Bach and Vivaldi frequently appear in the solos of heavy metal guitarists. And the spirit of the baroque—an unwavering belief in the power of music to touch people’s lives—changed music history forever† http://www. baroque. org.

Thursday, March 5, 2020

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami History and Its Aftermath

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami History and Its Aftermath December 26, 2004, seemed like an ordinary Sunday. Fishermen, shopkeepers, Buddhist nuns, medical doctors, and mullahs - all around the Indian Ocean basin, people went about their morning routines. Western tourists on their Christmas holiday flocked to the beaches of Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia, reveling in the warm tropical sun and the blue waters of the sea. Without warning, at 7:58 am, a fault along the seafloor 250 kilometers (155 miles) southeast of Banda Aceh, in the state of Sumatra, Indonesia, suddenly gave way. A magnitude 9.1 underwater earthquake ripped along 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) of the fault, displacing parts of the seabed upward by 20 meters (66 feet), and opening a new rift 10 meters deep (33 feet). This sudden movement released an unimaginable amount of energy - equivalent to approximately 550 million times the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. When the seafloor shot upward, it caused a series of huge ripples in the Indian Ocean - that is, a tsunami. The people closest to the epicenter had some warning about the unfolding catastrophe - after all, they felt the powerful earthquake. However, tsunamis are uncommon in the Indian Ocean, and people had only about 10 minutes to react. There were no tsunami warnings. Around 8:08 am, the sea suddenly drew back from the earthquake-devastated shores of northern Sumatra. Then, a series of four enormous waves crashed ashore, the highest recorded at 24 meters tall (80 feet). Once the waves hit the shallows, in some places the local geography channeled them into even larger monsters, as much as 30 meters (100 feet) tall. The seawater roared inland, scouring large areas of the Indonesian coastline bare of human structures, and carrying away an estimated 168,000 people to their deaths. An hour later, the waves reached Thailand; still unwarned and unaware of the danger, approximately 8,200 people were caught by the tsunami waters, including 2,500 foreign tourists. The waves overran the low-lying Maldive Islands, killing 108 people there, and then raced on to India and Sri Lanka, where an additional 53,000 perished about two hours after the earthquake. The waves were still 12 meters (40 feet) tall. Finally, the tsunami struck the coast of East Africa some seven hours later. Despite the lapse of time, authorities had no way to warn the people of Somalia, Madagascar, Seychelles, Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa. Energy from the quake in far-off Indonesia carried away approximately 300 to 400 people along Africas Indian Ocean coast, the majority in Somalias Puntland region. The Causation of the Casualties Altogether, an estimated 230,000 to 260,000 people died in the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. The quake itself was third-most powerful since 1900, exceeded only by the Great Chilean Earthquake of 1960 (magnitude 9.5), and the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake in Prince William Sound, Alaska (magnitude 9.2); both of those quakes also produced killer tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean basin. The Indian Ocean tsunami was the most deadly in recorded history. Why did so many people die on December 26, 2004? Dense coastal populations combined with a lack of tsunami-warning infrastructure came together to produce this horrific result. Since tsunamis are much more common in the Pacific, that ocean is ringed with tsunami-warning sirens, ready to respond to information from the tsunami-detection buoys arrayed across the area. Although the Indian Ocean is seismically active, it was not wired for tsunami detection in the same way - despite its heavily-populated and low-lying coastal areas. Perhaps the great majority of the 2004 tsunamis victims could not have been saved by buoys and sirens. After all, by far the largest death toll was in Indonesia, where people had just been shaken by the massive quake and had only minutes to find high ground. Yet more than 60,000 people in other countries could have been saved; they would have had at least an hour to move away from the shoreline - if they had had some warning. In the years since 2004, officials have worked hard to install and improve an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. Hopefully, this will ensure that the people of the Indian Ocean basin will never again be caught unawares while 100-foot walls of water barrel toward their shores.